This month marks the 121th month of economic expansion that emerged from the great financial crisis, US economic.
This cycle, which begins in June 2009, breaks the record of 120 months of economic growth from March 1991 to March 2001, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Perhaps because of the housing crisis, this course has been weaker than in previous years. The cumulative sum of quarterly GDP growth figures corresponds to 25% and is thus far below the previous booms.
While the unemployment rate has fallen from a peak of 10% in October 2009 to 3.6% in may, the lowest level since 1969, employment growth was relatively slower than in other post-war recoveries.
However, it seems to need some help now if it will continue to write the record books. The US Federal Reserve’s economic expectations for the second quarter only show a 1.5 percent increase after a strong 3.2 percent increase in the first quarter. The CNBC’s Rapid Update survey brings the GDP tracking estimate to 1.8%.
All eyes will be directed to the labour market report on Friday for the state of the economy. Economists assume that 158,000 jobs were created in June, compared with the disappointing 75,000 in May, according to Refinitive. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.6 percent.
But despite some internal weakness, this expansion keeps trucks along, getting its latest boost from the 2018 Trump tax cut along with a relaxation of business rules, according to economists.
Wall Street seems to be split, whether this expansion continues. Some believe that the Federal Reserve will save the day through interest rate cuts, while some think that additional stimulus cannot combat the impending downturn or that the Fed will not be aggressive enough to repel it.
“We still don’t see a recession, but we continue to worry more about downside risks than about upside risks for the outlook,” said Torsten Slok, chief economist at Deutsche Bank, in an email. “In order to counter the ongoing slowdown in data and the uncertainty as to how long the trade war will last, we see the Fed’s interest rate cuts in July, September and December.”
The consolidated result certainly does not look promising. Now, 77% of companies that make advance notice say their profits will be worse than Wall Street estimates, which marks the second worst quarter since 2006.